Most of the buyers I work with are leaving San Francisco. Nearly 70% of my business comes through referrals from my colleagues at the Sotheby's International Realty office in the city, and the first conversation usually starts the same way: "We're thinking Burlingame, or maybe Menlo Park. What does it actually cost?"
The honest answer is that the Peninsula is five different markets that happen to share a freeway. In San Mateo and Burlingame, the asking price is where the bidding starts. In Hillsborough and Atherton, it is usually where the negotiating starts. Buyers who bring one strategy to every town tend to either overpay or lose.
So these are the numbers I walk my city clients through, drawn from every single-family home that sold in each town over the last 12 months, October 2025 through September 2026.
The short version
- Median sale price: San Mateo $2.22M, Burlingame $3.20M, Menlo Park $3.60M, Hillsborough $6.53M, Atherton $12.0M.
- Under $3 million, about 7 in 10 homes sold over asking. Above $10 million, fewer than a third did, and more than half sold below their original list price.
- The first 10 days decide the price. Homes that sold within 10 days went for 5% to 13% over their original asking price. Homes that sat more than 30 days sold for 3% to 10% under it.
- Cash keeps gaining ground. In the first nine months of 2026, 54% of Hillsborough sales and 63% of Atherton sales closed without a loan.
- There is very little for sale. Burlingame and San Mateo each had less than one month of supply in early October.
What each town costs right now
| Town | Median price | Typical home | Price per sq. ft. | Typical lot | Sold over asking | Median days on market | Paid cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo | $2.22M | 1,720 sq. ft. | $1,296 | 6,000 sq. ft. | 74% | 9 | 20% |
| Burlingame | $3.20M | 2,160 sq. ft. | $1,562 | 6,000 sq. ft. | 66% | 8 | 29% |
| Menlo Park | $3.60M | 2,170 sq. ft. | $1,732 | 6,740 sq. ft. | 58% | 9 | 36% |
| Hillsborough | $6.53M | 4,310 sq. ft. | $1,624 | 0.53 acre | 44% | 11 | 53% |
| Atherton | $12.0M | 5,110 sq. ft. | $2,219 | 1 acre | 44% | 13 | 63% |
Price per square foot rose in every town compared with the 12 months before: about 5% in San Mateo and Menlo Park, 8% in Burlingame, 12% in Atherton and 13% in Hillsborough. I use price per foot for the year-over-year comparison because the medians in Hillsborough and Atherton swing with whichever estates happen to close. Atherton's median went from $8.2M to $12.0M, which says more about the mix of homes that sold than about any single house gaining 46%.
Hillsborough is the one to look at twice. Its price per foot is lower than Menlo Park's even though its median price is nearly double, because so much of what you pay for there is land. The top of that market also just reset. A Ralston Avenue estate sold for $70 million in August, more than double the town's previous record, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
What $3 million and $5 million actually buy
This is the comparison my city clients find most useful, because it turns "Burlingame or San Mateo?" into a concrete trade.
| Budget | Town | Sales | Typical house | Beds / baths | Lot | Built | Sold over asking |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| About $3M | San Mateo | 69 | 2,280 sq. ft. | 4 / 3 | 7,700 sq. ft. | 1956 | 78% |
| About $3M | Burlingame | 41 | 2,010 sq. ft. | 3 / 2 | 6,000 sq. ft. | 1929 | 73% |
| About $3M | Menlo Park | 37 | 2,010 sq. ft. | 3 / 3 | 5,710 sq. ft. | 1959 | 60% |
| About $5M | Burlingame | 19 | 3,000 sq. ft. | 4 / 4 | 6,240 sq. ft. | 2001 | 53% |
| About $5M | Menlo Park | 44 | 2,710 sq. ft. | 4 / 4 | 8,810 sq. ft. | 1982 | 39% |
| About $5M | Hillsborough | 23 | 3,460 sq. ft. | 4 / 4 | 22,350 sq. ft. | 1955 | 48% |
| About $5M | San Mateo | 11 | 3,090 sq. ft. | 4 / 4 | 11,010 sq. ft. | 1927 | 73% |
"About $3M" covers sales between $2.75M and $3.25M. "About $5M" covers $4.5M to $5.5M.
At $3 million, San Mateo gets you a fourth bedroom and a bigger lot than Burlingame, but you will compete harder for it, since 78% of those homes sold over asking. Burlingame at that price usually means a 1920s house with a lot of charm and one less bedroom. In Hillsborough, $3 million barely exists. Only two houses sold in that range all year.
At $5 million the choice changes shape. In Burlingame, the extra $2 million mostly buys a newer house on the same size lot. In Hillsborough, it buys half an acre with a 1950s house you may want to update. A yard and privacy is a very different purchase from a finished home a few blocks from Burlingame Avenue, and I always suggest deciding which one you want before touring both.
The list price means something different at every price point
| Price range | Sales | Sold over asking | Typical sale vs. asking | Sold below original asking | Median days on market | Paid cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $2M | 274 | 69% | 6% over | 26% | 11 | 20% |
| $2M to $3M | 321 | 74% | 7% over | 19% | 9 | 23% |
| $3M to $5M | 334 | 63% | 6% over | 24% | 8 | 30% |
| $5M to $10M | 200 | 55% | Under 1% over | 28% | 9 | 52% |
| $10M and up | 83 | 31% | At asking | 52% | 20 | 70% |
Below about $5 million, the asking price on the Peninsula is mostly a marketing number. Homes are priced to draw a crowd, an offer date is set, and buyers bid. Above $10 million the logic flips. More than half of those homes sold for less than they were first listed at, they took more than twice as long to sell, and 70% of buyers paid cash.
For a buyer coming down from the city, that means two different playbooks. At $2.5 million in San Mateo, the useful question is what the last three comparable homes sold for, not what this one is listed at. At $12 million in Atherton, the useful question is how long the house has been available, and why.
The first 10 days decide the price
This is how final sale prices compared with the original asking price, depending on how long the home was on the market.
| Town | Sold in 10 days or less | 11 to 30 days | More than 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo | 113% | 106% | 93% |
| Burlingame | 111% | 104% | 97% |
| Menlo Park | 108% | 100% | 94% |
| Hillsborough | 106% | 100% | 90% |
| Atherton | 105% | 98% | 93% |
On a typical Hillsborough house, the gap between selling in the first 10 days and sitting past a month works out to roughly $1 million.
For buyers, this is where the negotiating room is. A home that has been available for five weeks in Hillsborough or Atherton is usually priced wrong or presented wrong, and by then the seller knows it. For sellers, it is the clearest argument I know for getting preparation right before the photographer arrives. There is no second launch.
Cash buyers keep gaining ground
Share of single-family sales that closed without a loan, January through September of each year:
| Town | 2021 | 2023 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atherton | 55% | 58% | 67% | 63% |
| Hillsborough | 30% | 41% | 38% | 54% |
| Menlo Park | 24% | 37% | 34% | 38% |
| Burlingame | 23% | 26% | 26% | 29% |
| San Mateo | 12% | 21% | 19% | 21% |
Above $5 million the shift is even clearer. Across these five towns, 217 homes over $5 million sold in the first nine months of 2026, up from 162 in the same stretch of 2025, and 59% of them were bought with cash.
Some of that is AI money. OpenAI completed a roughly $7 billion employee share sale in August, and buyers with that kind of liquidity are not watching mortgage rates. Everyone else is. Freddie Mac's 30-year average reached 7.28% on October 1, up from 6.34% a year earlier, and the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September instead of cutting it.
Financing does not take you out of the running. It means your offer has to look as close to cash as you can make it: a fully underwritten loan approval rather than a pre-qualification, a shorter loan contingency if your lender is comfortable with one, and a clear plan for your San Francisco home. Deciding early whether you will sell in the city before or after you buy changes which homes you can realistically go after.
Town by town, for buyers leaving the city
Burlingame
Burlingame is where most of my San Francisco clients start, and it is easy to see why. Burlingame Avenue and Broadway are real walking downtowns, the elementary schools are in the Burlingame School District, most high schoolers attend Burlingame High, and Caltrain stops at Burlingame Avenue.
The catch is supply. On October 5 there were 12 single-family homes for sale in all of Burlingame, against an average of about 16 sales a month. Two-thirds of homes sold over asking, and the ones that went quickly sold for 11% over. If you are buying here, expect to compete, and expect the best houses to be gone within the first week.
Buyers looking near the train should also know about SB 79, the state law that took effect July 1 and allows taller buildings near Caltrain stations. Burlingame has proposed its own plan that shifts that density onto commercial corridors, and it is still under state review. If a house is within a few blocks of the tracks, ask what could be built nearby.
San Mateo
San Mateo has the most range on the Peninsula, from downtown condominiums to houses in the hills. Over the last year the single-family median was $1.51M in the 94401 zip code, $2.15M in 94403 and $2.76M in 94402, the west side that includes Baywood and Aragon. Elementary schools are in the San Mateo-Foster City School District, and high schools are in the San Mateo Union High School District.
It is also the most competitive place to bid. 74% of homes sold over asking, and the ones that went in their first 10 days sold for 13% over. The commute is a real strength. Caltrain's electrified service plan put the fastest trips at about 23 minutes from San Mateo station and 26 minutes from Hillsdale to 4th and King. Caltrain's operating funding is tied to the regional transit measure on the November 3 ballot, which is worth following if your commute depends on the train.
Hillsborough
Hillsborough is its own town with its own K-8 district, the Hillsborough City School District, and most of it is zoned for lots of half an acre or more. There is no downtown, so errands happen in Burlingame or San Mateo. City buyers either love the quiet immediately or realize they miss walking to coffee, and it helps to know which you are before falling for a house.
The numbers say Hillsborough is a negotiating market more than a bidding market. Fewer than half of homes sold over asking, the median home sold right at its list price, and homes that sat past 30 days closed about 10% below where they started. More than half of buyers paid cash.
What the public numbers cannot show is how much of Hillsborough trades privately. A meaningful share of the best houses sell without ever being listed, so they never appear in a sales report. One of my own Hillsborough sales closed at $11,500,000 before it reached the market. If you are shopping at the top of this town, the published inventory is only part of what is available.
Menlo Park
Menlo Park makes sense when your work is closer to Palo Alto, Stanford or Sand Hill Road than to downtown San Francisco. The median was $3.60M, and price per square foot was the highest of these towns after Atherton. Most of Menlo Park west of Highway 101 is in the Menlo Park City or Las Lomitas elementary districts, with Menlo-Atherton High School in the Sequoia Union High School District.
It is a slightly calmer market than Burlingame. 58% of homes sold over asking, and there was about 1.3 months of supply in early October, enough that a patient buyer can usually see a few options at once.
Atherton
Atherton is a one-acre town. The median lot over the last year was exactly an acre, the median sale was $12.0 million, and 63% of buyers paid cash. This summer it passed Miami's Fisher Island to become the most expensive zip code in the country again, according to PropertyShark data reported by Bloomberg.
It is also the only town on this list with real inventory. There were 16 homes for sale on October 5, about two and a half months of supply at the current pace. Homes that sold in their first 10 days still went for 5% over asking, but 55% of Atherton's $10 million-plus sales closed below their original asking price, so a buyer with patience has leverage. Schools are split among the Las Lomitas, Menlo Park City and Redwood City elementary districts depending on the address, so check the district house by house rather than assuming.
A checklist before your first Peninsula tour
- Pick the commute and the school district first. District lines do not follow town lines here, especially in Menlo Park and Atherton.
- Decide the order of operations. Buying before you sell your San Francisco home, or the other way around, determines how strong your offer can be.
- Get fully underwritten, not pre-qualified. With rates above 7%, sellers want to know the loan will close.
- Learn how the list price works in your range. Below $5 million, plan to bid over. Above $10 million, plan to negotiate.
- Ask about homes that are not listed. In Hillsborough and Atherton especially, some of the best options never go public.
- Price insurance early. California's FAIR Plan, which many owners on wooded or hillside lots rely on, raises rates an average of 29.1% on October 15. Get a quote during your inspection period, not after you close.
About these numbers
Figures cover single-family home sales that closed in each town from October 1, 2025 through September 30, 2026, compared with the same months a year earlier. They include homes that were listed publicly; private and off-market sales are not in them, which matters most in Hillsborough and Atherton. "Typical" and "median" mean the same thing here. Inventory counts are as of October 5, 2026. Atherton has about 80 sales a year, so its year-over-year figures move around more than the other towns.